ABSTRACT
This research aims to grasp the evolution of consumer demand and improve the resilience of the hotel industry under the public health crisis (COVID-19). Online reviews of 7,679 hotels in 10 cities were collected from Ctrip, China's major online hotel platform. Then, we applied opinion mining and time evolution to mine the change in consumer demand before, during, and after the COVID-19 pandemic. Findings show that some consumer demands (e.g. epidemic safety) will change during the outbreak period. However, during the nonoutbreak period, users were more concerned about their own check-in experience (e.g. hotel facilities, front desk services). This article provides new ideas for identifying the dynamic value of online reviews. We suggest that businesses focus on ensuring hotel safety during the crisis period. The results contribute essential theoretical and practical significance to the hotel industry's crisis management during public health crises.
ABSTRACT
Supply chain managers are forced to develop crisis-induced strategies due to the complexity of crises, as opposed to the more traditional strategies that prioritize competitive priorities. The increasing frequency and severity of recent crises, such as the coronavirus outbreaks, widespread product recalls, and financial crises, highlight the need for introspective and retrospective socio-economic insights on the contexts, priorities, and themes of supply chain management in times of crisis. This article's goal is to review the literature on supply chain management during times of crisis, organizing the relevant body of scholarly work in a systematic way, outlining current research methodologies, capturing strategic priorities and themes of complexity in research studies, and highlighting opportunities for additional research. Four factors for restorative priorities are identified by the review, which is based on a systematic analysis of 250 academic publications from 1996 to 2021 and reflects operations strategy in times of crisis: Critical supplies with important services, prompt action with restoration, safety with security, and traceability with transparency are just a few examples. The analysis also reveals that network configurations and business cycle complexity, optimal choices and provisioning system complexity, complicated learning processes and demand forecast are all sources of operational complexity during crises. The build-to-cycle, organic capabilities, and operational mindfulness framings for supply chain management in emergency situations are suggested with the use of review insights. The article ends with suggestions for future research on supply chain improvements, diagnosis, solidarity, mapping, temporariness, and thresholds, as well as optimal selection issues on connecting crisis network allocations with cross-functionalities and connecting crisis systems investments with liabilities.
ABSTRACT
After the global tourism industry has experienced the impact of the pandemic, it is critical that people gain confidence in traveling and have the impression that staying in hotels is now safe, because only in this way tourism businesses such as hotels can be fully successful in recovering. For this reason, the researchers guided by a descriptive research design and quantitative research approach, aimed to determine what people think about staying in a hotel, particularly in terms of safety and security, price, location, and service quality, in the time of COVID-19 pandemic recovery stage, focused on the local community of Calamba City, Laguna, Philippines, being one of richest cities in the country and the place where the researchers reside. Moreover, a comparative analysis of the perspective of the respondents has been performed in terms of their age, sex, and educational attainment, identifying which age, sex and educational attainment groups have more positive or negative attitude, and a higher or lower level of hotel stay intention compared with other groups. Being the first study that has assessed the tourism market particularly in terms of their perspective on hotel stay as the hospitality industry attempts to recover from the impact of the pandemic, this is expected to provide a clear picture of the need for management of hotels to continuously work on marketing efforts highlighting the information that it is now safe to practice tourism and stay in their establishments, hence, serving as a guide in coming up with promotional strategies and an action plan, as well as a motivation for researchers who wish to determine the same in their locality or country.
ABSTRACT
Broiler chicken eggs are one of the main and strategic foods for the people of Indonesia and contribute to regional and national inflation. Broiler egg production in Indonesia differs between regions. Areas with a surplus of eggs tend to have lower prices than areas with a deficit. This research is to measure the transmission of broiler egg prices between markets in surplus and deficit areas, using weekly price time series data for the period January 2018-December 2021. Areas of surplus broiler eggs, East Java Province (the highest broiler egg production in Indonesia) which become one of the main suppliers to the Province of East Nusa Tenggara as a deficit area. Using the Johannsen cointegration test it is found that there is no cointegration or there is no relationship between the surplus and deficit regions in the long term but not in the short term. Factors of marketing infrastructure, market information systems, and geographical conditions can be obstacles to the absence of cointegration. The VAR (Vector Auto-Regressive) Vector Error Correction model (VECM) test, found that price transmission occurred between surplus and deficit areas, meaning that between the two regions, there was market integration prior to Covid. The transmission has weakened, and due to the Covid situation, there have been restrictions on the movement of people and goods. The government and other market players need to study the response of the broiler egg market, in the short and long term so that market players can make the right policies.
ABSTRACT
This research determines the impacts of COVID-19 US on crawfish production and consumption for 2020 and 2021 using an Equilibrium Displacement Model. In the US, crawfish is one of the seafood commodities where most production is consumed by domestic consumers (7% of domestic consumption is from imports). Crawfish and rice are complementary. Therefore, the impacts of COVID-19 on crawfish consumption simultaneously influence rice production and crawfish producers and consumers. In the first year of COVID-19 (2020), the reduction in crawfish retail demand caused negative effects on final consumers and producers. However, crawfish consumption recovered significantly in the second year (2021), which could compensate for the loss in 2020. Overall, consumer and producer gains ranged from $549 to $626 million if the COVID-19 pandemic only impacted retail consumption. However, in 2021, the increase in production costs due to higher oil/diesel prices and other input prices caused the farm supply to decrease. As a result, total welfare gains ranged from $200 to $228 million. If the demand in 2021 did not increase, but the crawfish farm supply decreased, consumer and producer losses ranged from $929 to $1045 million. Overall, the total effects of COVID-19 on consumers and producers for 2020 and 2021 depend on its effects in 2021. If the demand in 2021 increased following the decrease in farm supply, consumers and producers would benefit from the shocks of COVID-19 due to higher post-COVID-19 demand.
ABSTRACT
Irrigation is increasingly being called upon to help stabilize and grow food and water security in the face of multiple crises;these crises include climate change, but also recent global food and energy price crises, including the 2007/08 food and energy price crises, and the more recent crises triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic and the war on Ukraine. While irrigation development used to focus on public, large-scale, surface- and reservoir-fed systems, over the last several decades, private small-scale investments in groundwater irrigation have grown in importance and are expected to see rapid future growth, particularly in connection with solar-powered pumping systems. But is irrigation 'fit-for-purpose' to support population growth, economic development, and multiple food, energy and climate crises? This paper reviews how fit-for-purpose irrigation is with a focus on economies of scale of surface and groundwater systems, and a particular examination of systems in Sub-Saharan Africa where the need for expansion is largest. The review finds challenges for both larger surface and smaller groundwater systems in the face of growing demand for irrigated agriculture and dwindling and less reliable water supplies. To support resilience of the sector, we propose both a holistic design and management improvement agenda for larger surface systems, and a series of suggestions to improve sustainability concerns of groundwater systems.
ABSTRACT
This paper begins with a survey of recent commodity price developments that highlights the magnitude of this price surge and identifies the rapid rise in wheat prices as a key element. The analysis in this paper focuses on the extent to which domestic markets are insulated from these changes and on the resulting impacts on world prices. An econometric analysis using Error Correction Models finds stable long-term relationships between world wheat prices and most domestic prices of wheat and wheat products, but with considerable variation across countries in the rate of price transmission. A case study of the price shocks during the Covid pandemic and the Ukraine food price crisis finds that price insulation roughly doubled the overall increase in world wheat prices and raised their volatility both during periods of price increase and price decline.
ABSTRACT
Insights on the indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic are critical for designing and implementing policies to alleviate the food security burden it may have caused, and for bolstering rural communities against similar macroeconomic shocks in the future. Yet estimating the causal effects of the pandemic is difficult due to its ubiquitous nature and entanglement with other shocks. In this descriptive study, we combine high-resolution satellite imagery to control for plot-level rainfall with household socio-economic panel data from 2014, 2016, 2019 and 2020, to differentiate the effect of the pandemic from climatic shocks on food security in Morogoro, Tanzania. We find evidence of decreased incomes, increased prices of staple foods, and increased food insecurity in 2020 relative to previous years, and link these changes to the pandemic by asking households about their perceptions of COVID-19. Respondents overwhelmingly attribute economic hardships to the pandemic, with perceived impacts differing by asset level.
ABSTRACT
The paper presents the reaction of the Romanian cereal market to the disruption of trade flows caused by certain shocks, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, which lead to changes with high impact on the functioning of this market, representing an important test for the resilience of the sector. Due to trade liberalization in global markets, including agri-food markets, the competitiveness of exports has become increasingly important, contributing to the creation of the country's competitive advantage. Any restrictions to trade in agri-food products can distort trade flows, and this disruption will have an impact on supply and prices. Maintaining a balance between imports and exports is essential to ensure domestic market stability. International trade in agri-food products plays an important role in global food security. The results show that Romania mainly exports unprocessed agricultural products, with cereals having the largest share in the export structure, cereal supply is dependent on climate change, yet it is one of the products with the lowest volatility. The cereal market shows a more elastic reaction to price responses, even though demand for staple foods is generally inelastic.
ABSTRACT
The upheaval wrought on the U.S. beef industry by the global COVID-19 pandemic carried with it several lessons that might help improve resiliency should there be a reoccurrence. First, the futures market for fed cattle fell well before cash prices, which sent a signal to market cattle early, and those who did so benefited. Second, the decline in futures anticipated the closure of slaughter plants and provided an opportunity to purchase and store beef primals in anticipation of future scarcity. Third, the beef industry has ways of slowing or stopping the pipeline of animals destined for feed yards and can "store" these animals in background feeding facilities or on pasture or rangeland. Producers who waited to sell feeder cattle benefited from higher feeder cattle prices once the processing facilities reopened. Fourth, cow slaughter plants responded to the pandemic and subsequent scarcity of labor much better than large fed-cattle plants. Cow plants are not as sophisticated and complex as fed-cattle plants. This relative simplicity may help explain the superior performance of these plants during the crisis. Sixth, the academic work on the value of building smaller plants as a response against concentration provides mixed results-these plants require more labor per animal and can be even more susceptible to labor scarcity. Seventh, the observed increase in boxed beef prices, even as fed cattle prices fell, demonstrates the risk-mitigating impact of producer ownership of downstream activities in the value chain.
ABSTRACT
The Covid 19 pandemic is a global, not only, health crisis with devasting impact on the world economy in general. These impacts are also visible more and more in food and agriculture sector as the main sector of population nourishment. In spite of adopted measures in many countries, spread of the virus is starting to distrupt the supply of agrofood products to markets and consumers, both within and across borders. Most major economies are expected to enter recession as a result of the Covid 19 pandemic, and the OECD has estimated that for each month the necessary containment measures continue the drop in output is equivalent to a decline in annual GDP growth up to 2 percentage points. How damaging these impacts tourn out to be for individual agricultural production of countries and agricultural cooperatives which are consider as the more viable during crisis is the objective of this paper.
ABSTRACT
Our world is changing too fast. The distances have been shortened and communication has been increased by the invention and widespread use of the internet. Our habits started to change in many aspects of our lives by the development of digitalization. Especially during the pandemic Covid-19 that has started at the end of 2019, it's observed that mobility of people have been decreased and however, they began to have difficulties in meeting the needs. There has been a great demand for companies that sell over the internet. In particular, the tendencies of people to purchase food items which are their vital need over the internet have increased to a great extent. Looking at the e-commerce market on a sectorial basis during the pandemic, the biggest increase was seen in e-food trade with a growth of approximately 400%. Within that period, it is predicted that our purchasing habits will change rapidly and virtual markets will become much more important in our lives. The delivery of food products to the consumer has always been a big problem. The risk of deterioration of the products in a short time and the physical destruction of the products during their transportation has increased the importance of food logistics. The logistics channels are needed to be developed in order to increase e-food trade. For this reason, contemporary logistics channels have started to be used by integrating developed logistics applications to the traditional logistics channels. It will be much faster and cost-efficient to deliver the products to the consumer with the new logistics channels in the near future. Yield penalty due to transportation will decrease, and since the number of stock brokers is reduced, the consumer will be able to reach the product they demand at a more affordable price from the producer that they have chosen. In the future, physical stores will be replaced by logistics-supported virtual markets. The agriculture and food sector should also start working in order to accommodate quickly to the new trade order.
ABSTRACT
Bangladesh imports roughly 98% of cotton from abroad to produce fabric or yarn (USDA 2020. Cotton and Products Update. Bangladesh. Also available at https://apps.fas.usda.gov/newgainapi/api/Report/DownloadReportByFileName?fileName=Cotton%20and%20Products%20Update_Dhaka_Bangladesh_11-30-2020). The production of textiles in Bangladesh depends on the price of raw material, the demand for garment products in the importing countries, smooth supply chain management, and the domestic supply of cheap garment laborers. The global pandemic of COVID-19 disrupted the supply chain of almost all physical goods and services, including textiles. It caused the price of textiles to fall due to a drop in worldwide demand, and increased the marginal cost of textile production due to supply chain interruptions. This paper shows how the decline in the demand for garments, coupled with an increase in cost, shrinks the producer welfare of textile manufacturing and garment exports of the small producing country, Bangladesh.
ABSTRACT
Romania ranks first in the European Union for the production of sunflower seeds, third for the production of soybeans and seventh for the production of rapeseed. The paper aims to analyse the effects produced by the COVID-19 pandemic on the evolution of the oilseed sector in Romania. Thus, the following indicators were analysed: evolution of areas under oilseeds, total oilseed production and average yields, as well as the volatility of selling prices for oilseeds. The results of the study reveal that Romania has been the largest producer of sunflower seeds in the European Union. The average yields in sunflower, soybeans and rapeseed have shown great variations in the analysed period. According to Eurostat data, it can be noticed that although Romania is the third large producer of oilseeds in the EU, the average yields continue to be low compared to those from other large EU producers. Yields are also among the most volatile in the EU. The selling prices for soybeans showed a higher increase in the year 2020 than in 2019 in Romania, compared to the increase in the average selling prices of the EU-27 (+9.89%). The selling prices for rapeseed also had a higher increase in 2020 than in 2019 in Romania, compared to the increase in the average selling prices of the EU-27 (+2.31%).
ABSTRACT
Seafood is the food group with the highest share traded, and the U.S. is the world's largest seafood importer, importing 79% of the seafood consumed. Hence, a study examining the impacts of the measures to contain COVID-19 on U.S. seafood imports will not only show how U.S. seafood availability has been affected, but will also give strong indications of how resiliently the global seafood markets have worked through the pandemic. We find that U.S. imports of seafood actually increased in 2020 and 2021, suggesting supply chains were able to adapt to potential disruptions. Moreover, for the 14 largest product forms imported to the U.S., there are no strong price movements. Given that there is a global market for most species groups, this adaption also suggests that the markets have worked quite well beyond the U.S. Hence, while there have undoubtedly been market shocks associated with the COVID-19 measures such as the reduction in demand from the restaurant sector and the increased sales in the retail sector, opportunities seem to balance out challenges, and the supply chains for seafood to the U.S. have been highly resilient.
ABSTRACT
Due to various policies measures to curtail the virus, one of which was lockdown, the occurrence of COVID-19 had a negative impact on the nation's economy, especially the rural smallholder farmers. The study looked into how Covid-19 lockdowns affected Nigerian vegetable production. Descriptive statistics, budgetary approaches, multiple regression analysis, and a Likert scale were all used for the analysis. The findings show that most of vegetable growers in the research region were married women (88.33%). About 70% of respondents have completed at least their primary education. The multiple regression analysis results disclosed that number of extensions contact, farm size, market access and transportation cost were significantly affected the level of vegetable production with positive sign while household size had a negative effect on the vegetable production. The findings also showed that after the COVID-19 lockdown, vegetable production was extremely profitable in the study area, with an average gross margin of 82,836.04 that was statistically higher than the 60,709.97 gross margin generated from vegetable production during COVID-19 and the 71,234.91 gross margin generated prior to COVID-19. The constraints faced by vegetable farmers during the covid - 19 restrictions include: high cost of transportation, price fluctuation, and high cost of input, perishability of the produce and lack of improved seeds. It was concluded that Covid 19 pandemic has greater effect on vegetable production in the study areas.
ABSTRACT
Oilseeds are grown mainly for the extraction of vegetable oils and for its by-products needed in livestock feed and in other industrial uses. The oils obtained from them are becoming a staple food used in daily cooking in several countries, and as a result the world demand is constantly increasing. This situation, combined with the exponential increase in the world population and other cyclical factors, is leading to a surge pricing, especially in importing countries. This increase in prices is fueled by soaring oil prices and disruption in supplies following Covid-19 pandemic and geopolitical tensions in the Black Sea. Morocco is directly impacted by these fluctuations given that the country imports almost its total needs in vegetable oils, oilseeds and meals. The high dependence on imported vegetable oils and oilseed products has a detrimental effect on the economy of Morocco and weighs heavily on the country's trade balance. Considering their increasingly important role in society, the development of a local oilseed sector to reduce Morocco's dependence on imports and cope with the vagaries of global markets has never been more topical in the current context of sustainable agriculture and food sovereignty.
ABSTRACT
Dairy production systems in Ecuador have been studied in the last 10 years. During the Covid-2019 pandemic, the entire human society was harmed and agricultural activities affected by the disease and by the restrictions implemented to prevent its spread. The dairy industry did not escape this global situation and was affected in various countries. Reports from Ecuador and Asian countries indicate the unfavorable effect that this global health emergency situation had on dairy production. However, according to a report by the Argentine Dairy Chain Observatory1, world milk production had a constant growth of around 3%. It is considered that the activities carried out by veterinarians, milking and animal handling operators, inseminators and by the personnel dedicated to the management of paddocks were affected by Covid-19. Likewise, the supply of medicines, agricultural inputs and technology had a critical situation due to the pandemic. In addition, the response times were not always adequate, especially due to the absenteeism of livestock personnel, human mortality and effects on the health and well-being of people . Therefore, it is of interest to investigate the effects the pandemic could have on the country's cattle farms. The objective of this work was to evaluate whether the pandemic period affected milk production per hectare per year in Ecuadorian herds.
ABSTRACT
The importance of food supply throughout the world has once again shown its significance in the COVID-19 pandemic period. A continuous food supply is possible with correct agricultural programming. An effective agricultural product programming can only be possible by obtaining precise agricultural data. However, it is very difficult to gather accurate agricultural production statistics from all over the world and confirm their accuracy. In this study, the compatibility of the production statistics of six important agricultural products (wheat, rice, potato, onion, banana, apple) which had been collected from local sources, and had published as opensource by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, with Benford's law was examined for the first time. Data for the last two decades are used to ignore the impact of annual fluctuations. The compatibility of theoretically expected and observed data was tested by Chi-square (X2) and Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) tests. Although inconsistencies were found in some data by examining the numbers in the first, second, and first two digits, in general, the MAD test results gave a mostly concordant result.
ABSTRACT
In this paper, we construct a hybrid model, consisted of a Bayesian Vector Autoregressive structure with Bayesian stochastic volatility (SVAR-SV), as well as, Fourier Series (FS). We test the model's performance in terms of forecasting ability, comparing it with simple Bayesian stochastic volatility (SV), and also with a classical econometric autoregressive model. By estimating the average prices of the major Food futures in the stock market, and the average prices of the biggest Marine companies' stocks, we test the effect of Covid-19 on these stocks, through the proposed hybrid model, and the impulse-response functions between the aforementioned. Through this approach, we test whether the Covid-19 pandemic hindered the performance of marine companies and affected the food prices, with those two affecting one another. Based on the findings, a shock is apparent from the Food futures to the Marine companies' stocks, and the hybrid model proposed is the best, in terms of forecasting ability.